The House and Senate have reached an agreement on the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, better known everywhere as “that huge stimulus bill“. I couldn’t stop myself from taking a peek. Here are some details that directly affect most taxpayers:

“Making Work Pay” Tax Credit: $400 per person, $800 per family
Apparently it won’t be sent out as a lum-sum check this time, but will directly increase your paycheck as an extra $13 a week in take-home pay starting in June (since it is retroactive to 2009), falling to about $8 a week in January 2010. I tend to think a lump-sum would have more “bang”. Starts to phase out at $75,000 modified adjusted gross income for single filers, $150,000 for married filing jointly.

“Not Working” Tax Credit: $250 per person
For retirees, disabled individuals and others who don’t work, they will receive a one-time $250 payment. This will probably be a check in the mail.

$8,000 First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit
Although there was talk of a $15,000 tax credit for all homebuyers, it looks like it was greatly reduced and still restricted to first-time homebuyers. Starts to phase out at $75,000 modified adjusted gross income for single filers, $150,000 for married filing jointly.

If you bought your house between April 9, 2008 and December 31st, 2008, the first-time homebuyer tax credit remains at $7,500 and you will have to pay it back over 15 years, or when you sell the house. If you bought your house after January 1st, 2009 and before December 1st, 2009, the credit is now increased to $8,000 and you will not have to pay it back as long as your live in it for 3 years.

New Car Tax Deductions
If you buy a new car, you can deduct the interest you pay on your loan as well as the taxes you paid on it (on up to $49,500). Starts to phase out at $125,000 modified adjusted gross income for single filers, $250,000 for married filing jointly.

…and a whole lot more, including expanded unemployment benefits. An example of a tiny tidbit that got mixed in? In 2009 and 2010, you can now use your 529 plan money to pay for “computers and computer technology”, which could include peripherals, software, and even broadband internet fees.

I am the President and CEO of a uni-national corporation. A one-person S-corporation, to be exact. I chose this over an LLC for a variety of reasons (most of which I don’t remember anymore), but one of them was - what else? - to save some money. I wrote a relatively wordy post a few years back on Forming An S-Corporation To Reduce Self-Employment Taxes. But I just read this e-mail from MyCorporation* that has a concise example with a nifty graphic thrown in:

In an S-Corporation, only earnings paid to an owner as salary is subject to payroll taxes. Any money left in the business for reinvestment or distributed to the shareholder as a dividend is not subject to self-employment tax.

Maria is a sole proprietor bringing in sales of $90,000. After she pays her costs & expenses, her profit is $60,000. As a sole proprietor, she is required to pay self- employment tax of 15.3% on this entire $60K of profit, which equates to $9,180.

Now, let’s assume Maria formed an S-Corporation for her business, and chooses to pay herself $35K for the year in salary, and take the remaining $25K of profit through a distribution. She still earns the same $60K in profit. But, let’s look at the tax situation. Because corporations only pay Social Security & Medicare taxes on salaries, she’s only liable for $5,355, saving over $3,800 in taxes!

If you have a single-person LLC, the tax situation is usually very similar to that of a sole-proprietorship. (I should add that in some states you can also choose to have the LLC taxed as an S-Corporation. I would consult a local attorney for more details on this.) Now, the salary has to be “reasonable” based on the compensation of similar work elsewhere, so don’t get too crazy with this.

The catch? As an employer, the S-Corporation has to pay unemployment taxes. The exact rate varies from state to state, but the federal minimum is about $450 per year if your annual income is at least $7,000. However, as both the employer and employee, it is very difficult for me to actually “lay myself off” and claim unemployment benefits. So this fact cuts slightly into potential tax savings.

* I actually used LegalZoom to file my incorporation papers, but right now their competitor MyCorporation is still offering free LLC or corporation filing with promo code MYFREE (same thing costs $139 at LegalZoom). You still have to pay the registration fees charged by your state.

There are many forms of capital. Besides the usual definition of business capital (money), there is physical capital (a car, house, or other useful tool), human capital (your skills and education), and also social capital. According to Wikipedia, this describes the value held within our relationships with other individuals and larger social networks.

One of the books I am currently reading is Simple Prosperity by David Wann (co-author of Affluenza). Inside, there is a nice quote about social capital:

It is inevitable that our society will once again give higher priority to belonging and lower priority to belongings.

Look at the results of a study by the National Science Foundation, which found that one-fourth of all Americans say that they have no one that they can discuss personal problems with. Not one person. This number has doubled since 1985. One in 32 people is either in prison or on parole. If our ultimate goal is to be happy and fulfilled, then this can’t be a good trend.

Sociologist Robert Putnam believes the following are indicators of social capital:

• How many of your neighbor’s first names do you know?
• How often do you attend parades or festivals?
• Do you volunteer at your kid’s school? Or help out senior citizens?
• Do you trust your local police?
• Do you know who your U.S. senators are?
• Do you attend religious services? Or go to the theater?
• Do you sign petitions? Or attend neighborhood meetings?
• Do you think the people running your community care about you?
• Can you make a difference?
• How often do you visit with friends or family?

It has been argued that growing social capital can keep you healthy, make schools more productive, reduce crime, and even raise home prices in a neighborhood. Perhaps the best thing about social capital is that “the more you spend, the more you have”.

In accordance with yesterday's post, it appears that this February is set to continue the trend of low volatility observed in previous years. With the US government on the verge of passing a record economic stimulus package, investors are becoming increasingly confident about the prospects of the global economy to avoid recession. On the surface, it would seem that the stimulus should benefit the economy, and by extension the Dollar. However, this ignores the fact that the Dollar is currently being driven by fear- the idea that the US remains a safe haven for investing- rather than by economic fundamentals. The same holds true for the Japanese Yen. Accordingly, regardless of how the stimulus ultimately impacts the economy, it will certainly increase risk tolerance in capital markets, potentially leading investors to shift capital out of the US and Japan into higher-yielding sectors. Bloomberg News reports:

"A lot of money that sat on the sideline is now being put back to work," said [one analyst]. "People are starting to move to make risky bets."

Read More: Yen, Dollar Fall as U.S. Stimulus Prospects Reduce Haven Demand

Speculation surrounding the Chinese Yuan has been mounting for months, beginning with a sudden halt to the currency's appreciation and continuing with the insinuation of the Obama administration that China is a currency manipulator. In the context of falling exports and a sagging economy, meanwhile, the Chinese Ministry of Finance has issued a research report encouraging the Central Bank to allow the currency to appreciate. Despite the Central Bank's insistence that it wants a "stable" currency, futures prices indicate a mean expectation that in fact, the Yuan will be nudged downward over the next twelve months. On the other side of the equation are financial analysts, who collectively forecast a slightly stronger Yuan, with one bullish analyst projecting a 3.5% appreciation in 2009, on the basis of selectively culled economic data. Bloomberg News reports:

“The consensus around China has been weak growth and falling reserves. The recent data challenges both views. Lending looks good, money supply looks good, and the PMI balanced to slightly bad from very bad levels.”

Read More: Citigroup Is Bullish on Yuan, Bets for 6.60 Year-End

Convention forex wisdom, as well as the "immutable" laws of economics, have long held that higher interest rates correspond with currency appreciation. This has been especially true in recent years, as risk-hungry investors used low-yielding currencies to fund carry trades, the proceeds of which were invested in higher-yielding alternatives. In the context of the credit crisis, however, this logic has been turned on its head, as the countries with the lowest interest rates have seen their currencies outperform. Emerging market economies that have turned bearish on inflation have likewise been rewarded with strong currencies, despite a potential imbalance in the risk/reward profile. This phenomenon suggests that investors are primarily concerned with deflation, and are parking their money in the countries they believe can best preserve their capital, even if the real rate of return is negative. One analyst argues this could spur further interest in gold, reports SeekingAlpha:

If it [the Euro] also joins the zero interest band-wagon then one may wonder what’s left for the currency markets to play with? Is this is a precursor to a crisis brewing here? Does gold get a further leg up – it’s a zero yield currency anyway!

Read More: The Currency Conundrum: Is It Another Leg Up for Gold?

At its next meeting, to be held in March, the European Central Bank is all but certain to bow to pressure and cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low. This should not come as a surprise, for the ECB’s February decision to hold rates constant was met with a large outcry, in both public and private circles. Soon-to-be-released inflation data is expected to confirm that prices are rising at a slower pace, perhaps even below the ECB’s 2% benchmark. Members of the Bank are also paying attention to the Euro, the continued weakness of which is ironically a product of the ECB’s comparatively tight monetary policy, as investors guard themselves against the risk of deflation. The Guardian reports:

As the economy falters, speculation is also increasing that the ECB may expand its monetary toolbox, possibly through asset purchases, to boost growth while keeping rates relatively high compared to other central banks.

Read More: ECB’s Liikanen, Bini Smaghi say rates could move in March

After months of speculation, it appears that forex markets have finally concluded that the Central Bank of Japan is now prepared to bring down the Yen. On the one hand, the Finance Minister of Japan very publicly denied that the overvalued Yen and the consequent need for forex intervention was discussed during either his personal conversation with US Treasury Secretary Geithner or at the most recent G7 conference. At the same time, he pledged the willingness of Japan to fight “excessive swings” in forex and capital markets. Meanwhile, the expensive Japanese Yen has already trickled down to the economy, driving a 12.7% decline in GDP (in annualized terms) for the most recent quarter. The Yen, accordingly, has begun its retreat, already erasing nearly 10% of the gains it racked up against the Dollar over the last year. Reuters reports:

Read More:Â Japan to act vs FX swings

While China remains committed, in rhetoric at least, to a flexible Chinese Yuan that rises and falls in accordance with market forces, its actions suggest otherwise. Beginning in the second half of 2008, China stopped allowing the Yuan to appreciate, for fear that a more expensive currency would exacerbate the domestic effects of the credit crisis by making exports less competitive. What China fails to realize however, is that a more valuable Yuan is not only conducive to global economic stability, but also to its own economic well-being. In fact, the artificially cheap Yuan may have actually worsened the economic downturn in China, because de-incentivized the creation of a domestic economic base. Now that overseas demand has dried up, it is left feeling the consequences of this neglect. The San Francisco Chronicle reports:

Read More: Undervalued currency helps, hurts U.S. economy

The credit crisis continues to exact a devastating toll on the economies of Eastern Europe, and capital flight has caused the region’s currencies to plummet precipitously. This has prompted internal debate in countries such as Poland, Czech Republic, and Latvia - to name a few- as to whether the effects of the crisis would have been so blunt had they adopted the Euro. While certainly Euro membership would have spared them from currency instability, it would not have necessarily facilitated financial and economic stability, as Italy, Spain, and Greece have learned the hard way. Regardless of whether Eastern European countries are politically willing to commit to the Euro (itself doubtful), this debate is largely moot, since the credit crisis has all but eliminated their ability to meet the preconditions of membership in the short run. The New York Times reports:

Read More: Currency Issues Weigh on Eastern Europe